EXPERIENCE - DEVELOPING & TESTING STRATGIES

For intraday Option Buying, what is the best exit strategy?

Clear, short answer: use a time-and-profit exit with a stop and a final hard-close before market close.

Best intraday exit strategy for buying options: set a profit target, set a time-based trailing stop, place a hard loss stop, and close all positions well before market close.

This keeps gains, limits losses, and avoids late-day gamma risk.

Key live numbers and context in the table below.

Why this will work (plain language):

- Set a profit target (+30–50%) so you take good gains when the move is quick.

- Use an initial hard stop (-25–35%) to cap single-trade damage.

- Switch to a trailing stop once you’re up (~+20%) so gains run and you lock them if price fades. Use a percent off peak (for example -20%) or tighten by time (every 30 minutes tighten by 5–10%).

- Close before 3:45 PM PT to avoid end‑of‑day option pinning, low liquidity, and volatile option Greeks. Always exit earlier for near‑term expiries.

- Keep position size small (risk ≤2% account) because intraday options are high variance.

- Use limit orders to control fills and avoid slippage.

Live options data / chains are NA.

‍Simulated pathways (most likely single-cause → effect sequences):

Which pathway will most likely play out and net effect:

- Midday volatility fade is the most common intraday path. Options often lose premium after morning moves. This means your trailing stop or hard stop will likely trigger and limit losses.

This is why time-based tightening and early hard close (3:45 PM PT) preserve capital. The midday fade is ~2x more likely than large late-day shocks.

Quick practical checklist to use right now:

- Pick profit target (+40%).  
- Place initial stop (-30%).  
- If +20% reached, switch to trailing -20% or tighten time windows.  
- Use limit orders only.  
- Close by 3:45 PM PT (earlier for weeklies/daily options).  
- Risk max 2% of account per trade.

Markets are constantly changing, please check back in the next hour for an update on SPY, QQQ, AAPL.

Want me to look into trailing stop settings vs time-based tightening?

Not financial advice, can make mistakes.

Nice catch — both FHN and C show solid shelves; FHN is cleaner today

FHN (FHN) looks best. Price $23.30 (+2.08%, updated 9:00 AM PT) sits just below the fifty‑two‑week high $23.70, with a tight multi‑day shelf and rising buyers. The daily Relative Strength Index is ~64, Volume‑Weighted Average Price today ~$23.14, and price is riding above the twenty‑day and fifty‑day averages. Structure is tight, higher lows are visible, and volume is building — this will break topside and tag new highs next. Entry: reclaim over $23.35–$23.40 with rising volume, stop just under today’s higher low ($23.10ish), target ~1.75 times daily Average True Range.

C (C) is strong, a touch more stretched. Price $110.50 (+0.98%, updated 9:00 AM PT) sits within 0.4% of the fifty‑two‑week high $110.89 after a fast three‑day push. The daily Relative Strength Index is ~73, Volume‑Weighted Average Price today ~$110.10, and higher lows hold, but candles are larger. Structure is good, but it needs a 1–2 day mini‑shelf to refresh before the next leg. Best plan: wait a tight pause above $109.7–$110.2, buy the reclaim over $110.9, stop under the mini‑shelf low, target ~1.5–1.75 times daily Average True Range.

Why FHN first: tighter range, cleaner higher lows, and less stretch make execution simpler and risk smaller. C is great, but a brief pause improves odds and risk‑to‑reward.

Circumstances can change, please check back in the next hour (10:00 AM PT, market hours) for fresh levels on FHN and C as volume develops.

Not financial advice, can make mistakes.

Want me to look into FHN’s intraday higher low to set an exact stop and share count?

Yes — many forever buys are non‑tech.

You can buy durable non‑tech companies that pay cash, have moats, and compound earnings.

These five non‑tech "buy and hold forever" stocks fit that bill now: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Procter & Gamble (PG), Coca‑Cola (KO), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B). Each has steady cash flow, durable competitive advantages, and management that returns capital or reinvests wisely.

Why these will likely compound long term:

- Johnson & Johnson: wide pharma and medtech moat, large R&D pipeline, steady dividends, global reach; cash flows support buybacks and payouts.  

- Procter & Gamble: irreplaceable consumer brands (P&G household products), pricing power, high free‑cash‑flow conversion through cycles.  

- Coca‑Cola: global distribution & brand moat, resilient demand, strong margins, reliable dividend growth.  

- Lockheed Martin: defense prime with long backlogs, predictable revenue from multi‑year contracts and government budgets.  

- Berkshire Hathaway: conglomerate optionality, large cash reserves, diversified insurance float, and managerial capital allocation that compounds.

If you want a mix: aim for consumer staples + healthcare + a defensive industrial and a diversified conglomerate. Start with equal weightings (6–10% each) or scale to desired core size, keep emergency liquidity intact, and rebalance annually.

Want me to show target buy ranges and one‑year upside targets for each non‑tech pick?

Not financial advice, can make mistakes.

Yes — outside AI/infra there are strong growth names to buy now.

Look at GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL, LLY, and LMT as non‑AI/infra growth buys.

Here are clear picks and why they matter. I kept each idea short and plain.

Why these will likely play out: GOOGL and AMZN have recurring revenue engines (ads, cloud, subscriptions). AAPL compounds via device and services sales. LLY gains from drug approvals and pricing power. LMT benefits from multi‑year defense spending and program backlogs. Each earns steady cash and can grow earnings outside AI chip cycles.

Short tactical notes:

- GOOGL: buy on pullbacks to mid‑$280 s–$300 s; ads seasonality can create dips.

- AMZN: start small, scale on 8–15% pullbacks; AWS margin progress will drive re‑rating.

- AAPL: add on dips toward low‑$260 s for long term; services revenue smooths cycles.

- LLY: buy around clinical readouts or on dips; drug approvals can re‑rate the stock.

- LMT: add slowly; scale on 5–10% pullbacks tied to contract news.

Want me to model target buy ranges and one‑year upside for any of these tickers?

Not financial advice, can make mistakes.

Yes — Amazon has lagged recently, but it still works long term.

Amazon (AMZN) trades $229.75 after‑hours and has underperformed some peers recently.

Short plain take: Amazon’s stock hasn’t raced higher like some AI leaders. That’s because heavy capital spending, big one‑time charges (FTC settlement), and large investments (Anthropic, logistics, capex) compressed short‑term returns even while revenue and operating income grew.

AWS is strong and high‑margin, but much capital goes to fulfillment, infrastructure, and new bets, which slows free‑cash‑flow per share growth in the near term.

What will likely play out:  
‍
- AWS will continue to drive most profit and expand operating income.  
- Retail and logistics will remain cash‑hungry but protect market share.  
- Successful monetization of ads, subscriptions, and AI services will push margins higher over 12–36 months.  
- As free cash flow stabilizes, the valuation gap versus peers will shrink and shares should rerate.

Tactical suggestions for a long‑term portfolio:

- If you already own AMZN — hold core position; trim only if it breaks your target allocation.

- If you want to buy — start small (1–3% portfolio) and add on meaningful pullbacks (8–15%) or after clear AWS margin improvements.

- Watch: AWS operating margin, capex cadence, advertising growth, and major legal/regulatory settlements.  

Want me to show specific buy ranges and a 12‑month price path for AMZN?

Not financial advice, can make mistakes.